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5G Smartphones Grab 47% Share of Thailand’s Overall Q3 2022 Shipments; Ultra-premium Shipments Jump 32% YoY

  • Apple led the ultra-premium segment with Samsung a distant second.
  • Thailand’s overall smartphone shipments fell 12% YoY in Q3 2022.
  • Samsung took the highest share in overall smartphone shipments.
  • Online shipments fell 11% YoY due to the overall decline in shipments.

Jakarta, Hong Kong, London, Boston, Toronto, New Delhi, Beijing, Taipei, Seoul – December 8, 2022

5G smartphones accounted for 47% of Thailand’s overall shipments in Q3 2022. Currently, 5G is a huge appeal for consumers who want to upgrade their older LTE smartphones and the technology might be a major factor for increasing shipments in Q4 2022.

In Thailand, operators like AIS are more focused on gaining share through 5G penetration and growing their broadband connectivity, both of which facilitate smartphone usage among Thai consumers. Since more people are opting for premium smartphones, most of which are now 5G compatible, 5G will continue to increase penetration in the market.

Meanwhile, Thailand’s smartphone shipments fell 12% YoY in Q3 2022 even as the ultra-premium segment (>$600) shipments grew 32% YoY, according toCounterpoint Research’s Monthly Thailand Smartphone Channel Share Tracker.In Q3 2022, the Thai economy struggled with inflation, sustained Russia-Ukraine war effects on trade and faced reduced tourism, which negatively affected consumers’ purchase decisions. However, a greater number of financially comfortable consumers purchased ultra-premium smartphones during the period. Apple led the premium market with an impressive 53% YoY increase in shipments. Apple’s earlier models went off the shelves swiftly in July and August, while there was an increase in shipments in September following the launch of the iPhone 14 series. Thailand’s shipments in the sub-$200 price band fell 18% in Q3 2022. Consumers in this segment might still need another quarter or two to recover from the economic turmoil.

Ultra premium more than 600 Smartphone Shipments Brand Share Q3 2022

Source: Counterpoint Monthly Thailand Smartphone Channel Share Tracker, December 2022

Commenting on Thailand’s smartphone market,Senior Analyst Glen Cardozasaid, “Sub-$200) smartphone shipments fell 18% in Q3 2022. To a certain extent, Thailand’s smartphone market is depending on the premium consumer for revenue at a time of economic uncertainty. OEMs have continued providing promotions on their launches even during the economic slowdown. Apple offered discounts on the iPhone 13 series, realme focused on occasion-based online sales, Xiaomi promoted IoT devices with its smartphones and Infinix provided promotions on the Lazada platform through Lazada Payday. All these initiatives were somewhat lost to most consumers who kept a tight leash on their finances during the quarter.”

Online shipments fell 11% YoY in Q3 2022 due to the overall decline in shipments. However, the online channels have been bringing in their own initiatives. Lazada has been aggressively promoting its brand membership program to lure consumers. JD Central is actively promoting smartphones, especially those of Xiaomi. In Q3 2022, 24% of Thailand’s overall shipments came from online channels. We expect this share to rise in Q4 2022 due to seasonality. As pent-up demand begins to grow in Q4 2022, online channels will use all means to entice consumers, which should help boost market share.

To a certain extent, the Thai government has shielded consumers from increasing prices, but the economy continues to face weak business sentiment and reduced consumer demand due to increasing interest rates, reduced tourism levels and a weaker Baht. The country’s tech sector also faces weak investments. All in all, Thailand’s smartphone market might take longer than expected to bounce back. For now, the country’s affluent class is helping balance and sustain the country’s smartphone market.

Feel free to contact us atpress@www.arena-ruc.comfor questions regarding our latest research and insights.

Background

市场研究是一个世界人口对位技术l research firm specializing in products in the technology, media and telecom (TMT) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

Analyst Contacts

Glen Cardoza

Follow Counterpoint Research

再保险lated Posts

Thailand Smartphone Shipments Down 10% YoY in Q1 2022 on Sluggish Economy, Supply Constraints

  • Samsung’swell-planned distribution in Thailand helped it take the lead with an 18.7% market share in Q1 2022, followed by OPPO with 17.4%.
  • A sluggish economy due to periodicCOVID-19resurgences,supply constraintsand sustained tourism sector slump lowered the consumer sentiment.
  • 5Gsmartphone shipments captured 48% of the total volumes in Q1 2022.

Hong Kong, London, Boston, Toronto, New Delhi, Beijing, Taipei, Seoul – May 25, 2022

Thailand’ssmartphone shipments fell 10% YoY in Q1 2022, according toCounterpoint Research’s Southeast Asia Monthly Smartphone Channel Share Tracker.Various factors contributed to the decline, including a sluggish economy,supply constraints, rising inflation and a tight-fisted consumer. Thailand’s sustained economic weakness continued in Q1 2022 due to COVID-19 and its after-effects. The government and industry struggled in reviving the consumer sentiment and bringing the purchasing power back to normal levels.

Focusing on the factors that affected the shipments in Q1 2022,Senior Analyst Glen Cardozasaid, “New models launched in Q1 2022 pushed volumes in the Thai market but the demand in the low-to-mid-level segments saw a slowdown. Tourism was supposed to pick up in Q1 but instead, the government was only able to loosen the restriction on international travel in Q2. While the industry initiatives continue, consumers are reeling under rising inflation levels and a large number of them are holding on to their wallets.”

oem厂商的市场莎尔e in Thailand, Q1 2021 vs Q1 2022 - Counterpoint Research

Source: Counterpoint Research Southeast Asia Monthly Smartphone Channel Share Tracker, May 2022

Samsungmanaged to plan and execute its shipments in a much better way than other brands. As a result, it was able to grab the biggest market share. The brand’sS22series sold more than its previous generation, with the Thailand market giving a better reception to this premium model family compared to the other Southeast Asian markets.OPPOandvivoconcentrated on their marketing campaigns and offers. vivo also concentrated on its offline channel growth.Xiaomicontinued with its offers and its closeonline协会与JD中央。

The 5G share of smartphones in Thailand’s overall shipments reached 48% in Q1 2022 and will keep increasing in the coming months.5Gindustrial test cases and applications are being accelerated to make sure domestic efficiencies and export levels improve.Operatorsare closely working with smartphone OEMs on bundles and packages.

Players have started offering more experiential value adds over and above their conventional services. Operators like AIS are partnering outside their industry and branching into big data utilization and AI applications while retailers like Jaymart are looking to engage more with consumers by starting ‘digital cafés’ to keep consumers within stores. OEMs’ associations with online channel players have continued over the last year. The online share of shipments made up 22% in Q1 2022, growing 15% YoY. Shopee andLazadagrabbed 61% of platform shipments through online channels.

Commenting more on the ecosystem,Cardozasaid, “Apart from supply constraints, China’s COVID-19 situation is affecting Thailand’s imports. While international tourism might take some time to get back to normal levels, the government and industry are focused on increasing domestic tourism and exports. With increased borrowing, the government does not want the common consumer to suffer from increased inflation. Under these conditions, the coming months should see a gradual improvement in consumer buying behavior and subsequently, OEM shipments.”

The coming two quarters are essential forThailandto rise from this economic turbulence. We might just see a push in shipments and sales in the coming months due to pent-up demand.

Feel free to contact us atpress@www.arena-ruc.comfor questions regarding our latest research and insights.

Background:

市场研究是一个世界人口对位技术l research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

Analyst Contacts:

Glen Cardoza

Follow Counterpoint Research
press(at)www.arena-ruc.com

再保险lated Posts

Thailand Smartphone Shipments Grow 3% YoY in 2021; OPPO Takes Top Spot

  • Thailand’ssmartphone market saw a flattish 3% YoY growth in 2021. Shipments bounced back in Q4 2021 to meet YoY levels after a low-performing Q3 2021.
  • OPPOled the market with a 20.5% share, followed by Samsung at 18.6%. Both were big on marketing campaigns and online offers.
  • Xiaomi, realme,Apple,InfinixandOnePlusall achieved their highest shipments ever in Thailand.
  • Online channel share was 26% in Q4 2021, the highest compared to the neighboring SEA countries likeIndonesia,PhilippinesandVietnam.
  • 5Gcompatible devices made up 40% of Thailand’s total smartphone volumes in 2021.

Hong Kong, London, Boston, Toronto, New Delhi, Beijing, Taipei, Seoul – February 17, 2022

Thailandwent through a challenging time in 2021 withCOVID-19 and subsequent economic effects taking a toll on consumer spending habits and overall market sentiments. According toCounterpoint Research’s Southeast Asia Monthly Smartphone Channel Share Tracker, Thailand smartphone shipments grew 3% YoY in 2021 driven by increased 5G transition, more digital transformation in Tier II and Tier III towns and an all-time-high increase in e-commerce purchases.

Talking about the smartphone brands and their performance in 2021,Senior Analyst Glen Cardozasaid, “Xiaomiinvested comparatively less in marketing initiatives but was one of the brands that achieved the highest shipments ever due to its launches, partnerships in channels and association with ecosystem players like operators.Applemanaged much higher volumes in Q4 2021 after the iPhone 13 series’ launch, crossing even the 2020 levels.realmedid well with online festive sales and had good YoY growth in Q4 2021.Infinixperformed much better on online sale days. Being an online-centric brand, Infinix has aggressively made its presence known on most e-commerce sites.”

Top OEMs Market Share in Thailand 2020 vs 2021

Source: Counterpoint Research Southeast Asia Monthly Smartphone Channel Share Tracker, December 2021

Thesmartphoneindustry had a good first half in 2021 but Q3 pulled down the shipment levels for most brands due to high COVID-19 infection rates.Supply constraintsincreased in H2 2021, but brands made sure that Q4 had enough inventory with most channel partners. On the country’s economy,Cardozasaid, “Thailand’stourism industry has always been a major revenue generator, but it has consistently taken a hit over the last two years. Consumer buying behavior has been volatile over 2021. As the year went by, there were worries of declining consumer purchasing power. In contrast, due to Q3 restrictions, Q4 was able to utilize the benefits of pent-up demand. At the same time, the government’s digital economy initiatives did not stop. It made sure that broadband networks continued to expand in all regions and tech expertise reached major industries like healthcare and manufacturing, with the integration of 5G use cases in the pipeline. Even tourism started seeing an increase in domestic visitors. Q4 2021 was a bounce-back for most OEMs with regards tosmartphoneshipments but brands like Xiaomi slipped in rankings due to acute supply issues.”

Top OEMs Market Share in Thailand Q4 2020 vs Q4 2021

Source: Counterpoint Research Southeast Asia Monthly Smartphone Channel Share Tracker, December 2021

过渡到5Ghas been a consistently strong trend in this country. Q4 2021 alone saw 49% of shipments coming from 5G smartphones. All main OEMs, led by Apple,vivoand OPPO, actively launched5Gsmartphones through 2021. Just like the 5G trend, online shipment share grew much more towards the last quarter as compared to any year. Online shipments increased 27% in 2021 and most of this increase came in H2 2021.

In 2021, more cohesiveness was seen betweenoperators, retail offline channels and e-commerce players, giving a big push to OEM volumes. Moreover, foreign investments continued to pour into Thailand, showing faith in the country’s growth strategy. In 2022, we should see tougher competition between the top five brands. There is also a possibility of increased shipments in the low- and mid-tier price bands as long ascomponent constraintsdo not hamper production.

Market Summary:

  • Samsungwas in a tight contest with OPPO in 2021. The brand coordinated with all its operator and retail partners to make sure that not only mid- and premium-end devices were promoted well but also their low-tier partners, including the A series, which worked so well for Samsung through the year. In marketing, Samsung’s partnership with South Korean band BTS was notable.
  • OPPOsaw an 11% dip in overall shipments in 2021 but still managed to lead the market by a very slim margin with Samsung. OPPO’s Reno series did well in H2 2021
  • Online share of shipments hit 26%in Q4 2021, which is the highest for any quarter in Thailand. This means many more consumers opted to purchase their smartphones online due to factors like cost, offers and convenience.
  • In Q4 2021,5G smartphones made up 49%of the country’s smartphone shipments, with theiPhone 13series launch pushing the numbers.

Note: Xiaomi includes Redmi, POCO and Mi sub-brands. OPPO includes OnePlus.

Feel free to contact us atpress@www.arena-ruc.comfor questions regarding our latest research and insights.

Background:

市场研究是一个世界人口对位技术l research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

Analyst Contacts:

Glen Cardoza

Follow Counterpoint Research
press(at)www.arena-ruc.com

再保险lated Posts

Thailand Smartphone Shipments in Q3 2021 Dropped 14% YoY But 5G Shipments Are Highest Ever

Hong Kong, London, Boston, Toronto, New Delhi, Beijing, Taipei, Seoul – November 22, 2021

Thailand’ssmartphone shipments decreased by 14% YoY in Q3 2021, according toCounterpoint Research’s Monthly Thailand Channel Share Tracker. August saw the peak ofCOVID-19infection rates in the country, which led to slowing down of the economy. However,5Gsmartphone shipments during the quarter were the highest ever.

Commenting on the change in consumer sentiment,Senior Research Analyst Glen Cardozasaid, “Thailand’s government and industry made sure to continue with ecosystem improvements in 5G and other telecom infrastructure. However, OEM shipments suffered due to supply constraints. Besides, consumer sentiment was not high enough for smartphone purchases during Q3. As shipments decreased, consumer demand was seen more in the sub-$150 band. The C series ofrealmeandSamsung’sentry-level Galaxy series like A02 did well during this period as consumers preferred economical options. Smartphones in the $400 and above band were still in demand due to many new launches and consistent promotions by OEMs and operators alike.”

Samsungled the shipments in Q3 2021 with a share of 22%. The A-series models, like the A12, A02 and A22, led with bulk shipments.OPPOandXiaomifollowed with 17% each.

oem厂商的市场莎尔e in Thailand, Q3 2020 vs Q3 2021

Even as overall shipments decreased, the share ofonline channelsshowed a QoQ increase, reaching 24%. This also hints at a strongonlinechannel performance even for Q4 2021. The 9.9 online festival sales in September led to demand growth. Major platforms likeShopee,LazadaandJD Centralperformed well due to pent-up demand over the first two months of the quarter.

泰国,2021年第四季度是看起来非常有前途的when compared with otherSEAcountries. Thailand has shown potential to absorb COVID-19 impact in the past. Higher range smartphones have a larger market in this country, which will favour OEMs as well.Apple’siPhone 13series is most likely to sustain its demand in the coming months.

Counterpoint Research 5G Smartphone Share of Thailand Shipments, Q3 2021 vs Q2 2021

As5Ginfrastructure is a priority area, OEMs have also started launching 5G SA (standalone network) compatible models.vivocame out with the V21 5G which supports 5G SA networks. Thedigitaltransformation is going well in Thailand with a focus on Industry 4.0. Technology brands likeHuaweiare at the forefront with their expertise and investments in the country. All these factors will see an increased absorption of5G, not only for smartphones but also smart homes and other IoT devices.

Analyst Contacts:

Glen Cardoza

Follow Counterpoint Research
press(at)www.arena-ruc.com

再保险lated Posts

Southeast Asia Perks Up, Boosts Smartphones

Southeast Asia(SEA) has been showing consistent economic promise for a while now. The changing landscape is giving thesmartphonesector a much-needed boost as well. Four players have a pivotal role in this sector.

Initiatives from 4 major players are changing the ecosystem in Southeast Asia

Whilegovernmentsupport in key SEA countries has resulted in a faster rollout of5Ginfrastructure, most governments are currently focused onCOVID-19vaccination and jump-starting the economy. In the parallel,Thailandcontinues to concentrate on advanced5Gutilization, while countries likeIndonesia,PhilippinesandVietnamare focusing on solidifying their5Ginfrastructure and increasing coverage.

Operators

The main operators in the key SEA countries are not only concentrating on increasing their 5G coverage but also making sure they sustain a healthy4Gnetwork. Rural focus is helping them raise subscription levels as well. Their consistent tie-ups with OEMs are giving a push to bundled packages and 5G (especially in metros and Tier I cities). This will continue to increase at a YoY level, even after Q4 2021.

From merging telecom operators inIndonesiato industrial applications being pursued in Thailand,5Gconnectivity is growing stronger in this region.

Even consumers who had not considered 5G during their most recent purchase of a smartphone, will consider it strongly in the future.

OEMs

New5Gsmartphone launches in the mid-tier price band have been all the rage in this region. The ASPs for these 5G phones will go down for upcoming models from top brands like realme. This will lead to an increase in upgrades.

Brands likeOPPO, Xiaomi andrealmeare adding consumerIoTproducts, like smart speakers, to purchase deals which is good exposure for their IoT portfolio in these markets. For brands likeXiaomi,IoTsegment makes up 10% of total revenue in some markets.

As the markets open, brands are also increasing their offline footprint. Xiaomi is looking to increase its sales outlets from 38 to more than 100 within this year. The brand is also making sure its after-sales network is geographically widespread. Xiaomi and realme stand out here.

E-commerce

The “9.9”shopping festivalsaw some big investments and celebrity endorsements ononlineplatforms likeShopee. Other big players across SEA, likeLazadaandTokopedia,also spent on marketing campaigns and tie-ups with brands, events and celebrities.

Online salesare one of the biggest reasons for consumers to indulge in shopping towards the end of the year.

Whether it is ‘live shopping’ on Tokopedia or increasing Korean influence with music groups like BTS, consumers can relate to this association. The main SEA economies may see their highest ever online smartphone shipments in Q4 2021. WithCOVID-19infection rates going down in most SEA countries, the only deterrent here iscomponentshortagesaffecting supply.

Manufacturing

Q3 2021 saw governments in Indonesia and Vietnam giving emphasis to essential items. As infection rates went down in August and September, vaccination for themanufacturingsector was given priority. Starting September, most production facilities inVietnamresumed normal operations and scaled up to make provisions for Q4 demand.

All the above factors play in favor of a very productive and lucrative smartphone season in Q4 2021. All key SEA countries are likely to show more than 20% growth over Q3 2021 and a healthy YoY increase as well. Indonesia,ThailandandPhilippineswill show a higher online share in smartphone shipments.

再保险lated Posts

Smartphone Shipments Grow 12% YoY in Key Southeast Asian Countries in Q1 2021

Hong Kong, London, Boston, Toronto, New Delhi, Beijing, Taipei, Seoul – June 10, 2021

The smartphone market in the four major Southeast Asian countries ofIndonesia,Thailand,Vietnam, and thePhilippinesrecorded a 12% YoY growth in Q1 2021, according to Counterpoint’sGlobal Smartphone Channel Share Tracker. Online sales grew 45% compared to the same period last year, accounting for 16% of the total market.

Looking at the growth rate of these markets, Indonesia (the biggest economy) saw YoY growth of 4%. Though relatively smaller, Thailand, Philippines and Vietnam markets saw high YoY growth rates of 13%, 19% and 26% respectively.

在关键Southe智能手机出货量同比增加ast Asian Markets, Q1 2021

Top brands and their performance

OPPOled the brand share with 22% whileSamsungandvivo排名第二和第三股再保险19%和16%spectively. OPPO, which has recently achieved good results inChina, managed to maintain its No. 1 position in the Southeast Asian markets in the first quarter. OPPO’s A series and再保险noseries have proved to be successful in these markets.

Appleregistered good results due to the popularity of the iPhone 12. The brand ranked sixth with a 6% market share in Q1 2021.TranssionGroup brands, especially Infinix andTECNO, have been doing well in theseSoutheast Asianmarkets.

The competition in this region is getting fiercer thanks to a maturing ecosystem, increasingly tech-savvy and young population, and growingonlinedependence over the last year.

Exhibit 2: Online Smartphone Sales Share by OEM, Q1 2021

Along with the growth in online sales, there is an increased cohesiveness between OEMs andtelecom operatorsas well. In addition,5Ginfrastructure and5Gcommercialization are moving ahead at a brisk pace. The proportion of 5G compatible smartphones will increase in 2021. Even with the recentCOVID-19resurgence, we remain optimistically cautious about this region and its potential.

Note: There have been some revisions in the overall and country-level YoY growth percentages for Q1 2021. Brand market shares remain the same.

Background:

市场研究是一个世界人口对位技术l research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

Analyst Contacts:

Glen Cardoza

Follow Counterpoint Research
press(at)www.arena-ruc.com

再保险lated Posts

Thailand Shows Immense Potential as its Smartphone Market Grows 18% YoY in Q1 2021

Hong Kong, Boston, Toronto, London, New Delhi, Beijing, Taipei, Seoul – May 19, 2021

Thailandsmartphon见证了18%的强劲增长e shipments in Q1 2021, according toCounterpoint Research’s MonthlyThailandChannel ShareTracker. Many factors played a part in this growth. These included a spill over of pent-up demand from Q4 2020, and aggressive schemes and offers from OEMs and channel partners with an emphasis on online mediums. The Thai economy has seen some volatility in the last five quarters. Even as smallCOVID-19resurgences continue, the country’s post-pandemic measures are taking effect, with consumers showing a healthy demand for smartphones.

Counterpoint Research Top OEMs' Market Share in Thailand

Thailand is the most mature market in theSouth East Asian region. Commenting on what has changed over the last few quarters,Senior Research Analyst Glen Cardozasaid, “The top six brands are aggressively trying to capture more market share but there are other brands at play as well. The declining volumes ofHuaweiandHONOR, and the upcomingTranssionbrands likeInfinixandTECNOare all variables that continue to add volatility to this strong smartphone market. Brands likeXiaomiandrealmeare trying hard to capitalize on their online prowess to improve their presence.”

Thesupply crunchis affecting smartphone brands in this country as well. Since shipments are not up to the mark, the full potential of sales is not being utilized.

Online salesincreased 49% YoY in Q1 2021, which is a much-needed positive when COVID-19 and supply crunch are pulling sales numbers down. As stocks move faster throughonline channels, brands are aggressively promoting and discounting their smartphone models.OPPOmakes up the biggest piece of this online sales pie, followed closely bySamsungandvivo.

Counterpoint Research Thailand Online Smartphone Sales Share by OEM, Q1 2021

Well-established online players likeLazada, Shopee and newly empoweredJD.comare partners to mostly brands with an online presence. Thailand has a sizeable consumer base that has relatively more discretionary income to invest in smartphones, mainly through online channels. This proportion is higher than all other SEA countries. It is precisely why Thailand is most likely to have the highest online channel growth in the coming quarters.

Apart from an evolved online channel, Thailand shows a high growth rate of5Gcapable smartphones. In Q1 2021, more than 30% of its shipments consisted of 5G capable smartphones. As the country braces for some big 5G-related infrastructural changes, itstelecomindustry is making sure to work with the government and smartphone OEMs to effectively cater to an evolved consumer’s demand. This, however, will depend on many factors affecting the economy, like the potential of telecom giants to grow their 5G infrastructure, COVID-19 vaccination levels, andconsumer purchasedecision dynamics.

Background:

市场研究是一个世界人口对位技术l research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

Analyst Contacts:

Glen Cardoza

Follow Counterpoint Research
press(at)www.arena-ruc.com

再保险lated Posts

Thailand Smartphone Market to Decline Amidst COVID-19 Pandemic: Present Scenario and Outlook

Thailand smartphone market sales declined 8% YoY in CY 2019 and we believe it will continue to decline in CY 2020 amidst Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic.Samsungis leading the Thailand smartphone market with a 31% market share in CY 2019 driven by its wide device portfolio that caters to the requirements and needs of all income groups. The refreshedGalaxy A serieshas further helped Samsung strengthen its portfolio and grow 6% YoY.

Apart from Samsung, Chinese OEMs have gained popularity in the market. They are aggressively expanding outside China and Thailand is an attractive market for them as the smartphone users there look for “value for money”. Good specs at competitive pricing give Chinese OEMs an edge over other OEMs and will likely help Chinese players grow further. For the same reason, we believe the runner up Oppo and Samsung to be in tough competition for the top spot.

Thailand smartphone market: CY 2018 vs. CY 2019

再保险asons for the decline (in decreasing order of their importance) in Thailand smartphone market:

  1. Thailand’s smartphone market has reached saturation. DTAC’s subscriber count declined 2% YoY in 2019 and other major operators remained almost flat in terms of subscriber count.
  2. Thailand’s GDP growth slowed to 2.4% in 2019 compared to 4.1% in 2018.
  3. The Thai general elections of 2019 which gave no party an absolute majority added to the economic instability.
  4. The replacement cycle elongated because people tend to use their present smartphones for longer and are waiting for a 5G smartphone as their next buy. Also, as an immediate impact of the coronavirus pandemic, the replacement cycle is likely to stretch still further.
  5. The decline was further triggered by a drop in Huawei sales due to a lack of GMS services in their devices following the imposition of trade sanctions by the US. However, Samsung and Oppo partly monetized on this opportunity to grow.

COVID-19 Impact

The newcoronaviruspandemic will have an impact on market performance in Thailand. In 2020, the pandemic will adversely impact Thailand’s tourism which will further impact the Thai economy. This will feed through to lower disposable incomes. The decline in disposable income will have an indirect negative effect on Thailand’s smartphone market, likely by further extending replacement cycles, causing people to buy cheaper products or opt for second hand or refurbished handsets.

Assuming the Thai authorities can continue to keep the spread of the virus under control locally, the most likely scenario is for the Thailand smartphone market to be flat to slightly down in 2020. Recent5Gauctions and sales of 5G phones in 2020 can help the market to recover more quickly later in 2020 and into 2021.

Quick scenario wise analysis:

  1. Optimistic: Pandemic bought under control in Q1- Thailand market to grow 1-2% YoY in 2020 driven by 5G and strong performance from Samsung, Oppo, and Vivo.
  2. Most Likely (Base Case): Pandemic bought within control in Q2- Market to decline 1-1.5% in 2020 driven by 5G and strong performance from Samsung and moderate performance from Oppo and Vivo.
  3. Pessimistic: Pandemic continues into Q2, possibly even into Q3- Market to decline 4-5% YoY driven by a weak performance from Chinese OEMs.

Certainly, this viral outbreak will have an impact on the production and shipment of vendors globally. Though China is starting to get back to normalcy, the vendors who have their component manufacturers and supply chain in the country will be impacted. We believe their shipments will take a loss for the first quarter of 2020. Hence, we believeSamsungwho relies on India, Vietnam and South Korea for component manufacturing and assembly will be at an advantage for the first quarter. However, the market will rebound post the period of crisis with a little change in demand patterns and therefore the Chinese brands will bounce back strong giving a tough fight to the Korean giant.

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