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2023 Global Smartphone Shipments to Hit Decade Low As Apple Inches Closer to Top Spot

2023 is on track to be the worst year for global smartphone shipments in ten years
Regional macro risks are extending smartphone replacement rates to record levels
Asia ex-China/India, North America and China likely biggest drivers of negative growth, respectively
Apple best positioned amongst key OEMs and could become #1 brand for first time ever
We remain cautious on Q1 2024 and see elevated risk of a delayed recovery into 2024

Boston, Seoul, Beijing, New Delhi, London – August 17, 2023

According to preliminary figures from Counterpoint Research’s latestGlobal SmartphoneShipment Forecast, 2023 shipments are forecast to decline 6% to 1.15bn units, the lowest in a decade.

Asia is one of the major hurdles to positive growth, as headwinds halt theeconomicturnaround anticipated forChinaat the start of the year, and the broader region experiences intensifying declines across emerging markets.

As well, North America continues to be a major drag on global recovery, with a disappointing 1H setting it up for double-digit full year declines. Despite strength in the jobs market and inflation falling, consumers are hesitant to upgrade their devices, pushing replacement rates for theUSand globally to record highs. “There’s been a decoupling between what’s happening in the economy and consumers buyingphones. So far this year it’s been record low upgrades across all carriers,” says Jeff Fieldhack, Research Director for North America.

“But we’re watching Q4 with interest because the iPhone 15 launch is a window for carriers to steal high-value customers. And with that big iPhone 12 installed base up for grabs promos are going to be aggressive, leavingApplein a good spot.”

In China, “Apple is well positioned as the premium segment continues to gain more share.” states Ethan Qi, Associate Director for China.

Premium and ultra-premium growth is a trend that is happening globally and favors vendors like Apple which have portfolios heavily weighted in the higher segments.

2023 could mark the start of a new era for Apple as a resilient premium market and strong showing in the US could help it become number one globally in terms of annual shipments for the first time ever. “It’s the closest Apple’s been to the top spot. We’re talking about a spread that’s literally a few days’ worth of sales,” muses Fieldhack. “Assuming Apple doesn’t run into production problems like it did last year, it’s really a toss up at this point.”

Background

Counterpoint Technology Market Research is a global research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

Analyst Contacts

Jeff Fieldhack

Ethan Qi

Follow Counterpoint Research

Global Foldable Smartphone Market Continues to Expand, Underpinned by China

In Q1 2023, global foldable shipments grew 64% YoY to 2.5 million units.
China’s overall smartphone market fell in Q1 2023 but the domestic foldable market rose.
OPPO, Samsung grew rapidly in the Chinese foldable market.
Apple is likely to enter the foldable smartphone market in 2025.

Beijing, Hong Kong, Seoul, New Delhi, London, San Diego, Buenos Aires – July 7, 2023

According to theCounterpoint Research Foldable TrackerandFoldable Insight Report, the global foldable smartphone market increased 64% YoY in Q1 2023, based on sell-in volume, to reach 2.5 million units. This is quite significant because the foldable market rose amid a 14.2% year-on-year decline in the overall global smartphone market during the same period. Foldable smartphone markets in almost all major regions, including China, North America and Western Europe, displayed strong growth in Q1 2023.

Global Foldable Market YoY Growth Rate by Major Region, Q1 2023

The robust growth in the global foldable market was largely driven by the growth in the Chinese foldable market. Although the Chinese smartphone market declined by about 8% YoY in Q1 2023, the domestic foldable market continued to grow, surging 117% YoY to 1.08 million units. Commenting on this phenomenon,Research Analyst Woojin Sonsaid, “In China, new foldable products such as the OPPO N2 and N2 Flip had grand releases. These big launch events constantly pique the market’s interest. Consequently, Chinese consumers have become more familiar with foldable products compared to other regions.”

China Foldable Market Share by OEM, Q1 2023 YoY

OPPO’s strong Q1 2023 performance is noteworthy as it reflects the brand’s success in the Chinese foldable market, which is emerging as the world’s largest foldable smartphone market. OPPO ranked second in the Chinese foldable market with a slight gap with leader Huawei, helped by the N2 Flip and N2 which were released at the end of 2022. In particular, the N2 Flip, OPPO’s clamshell-type foldable, contributed a lot to the increase in the sales of clamshell-type products in China, beating Huawei’s Pocket S. Samsung’s growth in the China foldable market is also noteworthy. Samsung made efforts to target the Chinese market by launching the W23 and W23 Flip, which are variants of the Z Fold 4 and Z Flip 4, respectively, produced mainly for the Chinese market and MEA market. This helped Samsung grow rapidly in the Chinese foldable market in Q1 2023. Commenting on the foldable smartphone market outlook for 2023,Senior Analyst Jene Parksaid, “We believe that, in 2023, there will be 1) intensifying competition among OEMs in the global foldable market due to more aggressive target market expansion; 2) intensifying price competition; and 3) increasing sales volume of clamshell-type foldable smartphones through various product launches. Also, the Chinese foldable market is expected to continue to grow through 2023 mainly due to the Chinese consumers’ recognition of ‘foldables’ as a premium smartphone, coupled with continuous and frequent new product launches in the country.” Addressing the big question around Apple’s entry into the foldable market,Parksaid, “Apple is still absent from our short-term forecasts. However, since overall consumer response to foldable phones is improving and Apple will be possibly releasing non-phone foldable products soon, the brand’s participation in the foldable smartphone market is likely to occur after 2025.”

第一季度全球智能手机市场下滑14% 2023; Apple Records Highest-Ever Q1 Share

The global smartphone market declined by 14% YoY and 7% QoQ to record 280.2 million unit shipments in Q1 2023.
Samsung replaced Apple as the top smartphone player in Q1 2023, driven by its mid-tier A Series and the recently launched S23 series.
Apple’s YoY shipment decline was the least among the top five brands. Consequently, it recorded its highest-ever Q1 share of 21%.
Global smartphone revenues declined by 7% YoY to around $104 billion. Apple, Samsung, Xiaomi increased their Average Selling Prices YoY.

London, New Delhi, Hong Kong, Seoul, Beijing, Denver, Buenos Aires – May 5, 2023

The global smartphone market faced further contraction in the post-holiday-season quarter with shipments declining by 14% YoY and 7% QoQ to 280.2 million units in Q1 2023, according to the latest research fromCounterpoint’s Market Monitor service.

Source: Counterpoint Research Market Monitor Preliminary Data, Q1 2023
Note: OPPO Includes OnePlus

Commenting on overall market dynamics,Senior Analyst Harmeet Singh Waliasaid, “Smartphone shipments declined further in Q1 2023 following the weakest holiday-season quarter since 2013, as theslower-than-expected recovery in Chinawas marred by alarming bank failures on both sides of the Atlantic further weakening consumer confidence in the face of unrelenting market volatility. The smartphone market was also hit by some major brands supplying fewer new devices to a market struggling with high inventories at a time when consumers are choosing to renew less often, but with more durable smartphones when they do buy.”

Consequently, global smartphone revenue and operating profit also declined, although not as much as shipments. This was due, in part, to the lower-than-usual decline in Apple’s shipments, to 58 million units in Q1 2023. Apple thereby managed to capture nearly half of all smartphone revenues. While Samsung’s shipments declined 19% YoY despite growing by 4% QoQ to 60.6 million units, the launch of the Galaxy S23 series enabled Samsung’s ASP to increase to $340, up 17% YoY and 35% QoQ, which in turn contributed to global revenues falling relatively less. Apple and Samsung also remain the most profitable brands, together capturing 96% of global smartphone operating profits.

Source: Counterpoint Research Market Monitor Preliminary Data, Q1 2023
Note: OPPO Includes OnePlus

Commenting on Apple’s performance,Research Director Jeff Fieldhacksaid, “Apple outperformed the market due to several factors. Firstly,the stickiness of its ecosystemprevents its customers from choosing a cheaper smartphone even in times of economic difficulty. Secondly, with sustainability becoming a priority for many, not only hasApple captured nearly half of the secondary market, it is also attracting users who are willing to spend more for longer-lasting devices. Thirdly, it is the preferred brand for Gen Z consumers in the West and is thereby positioning itself for sustained success. At the same time, it has been filling the void left by Huawei inChina’s premium market. So, Apple is able to weather economic and other fluctuations better than its rivals while enjoying unflinching loyalty. This also meant Apple was able to meet the demand for the iPhone 14 series which spilt over Q4 2022, when it had problems at its Zhengzhou factory, rather than that share dissipating or transferring to rivals.”

除了三星和苹果,全球最大smartphone brands from China, Xiaomi, OPPO* and vivo, will have to wait longer for their shipments to rebound as each of them experienced double-digit annual declines in Q1 2023. This was due to a seasonal slowdown in China at a time when the country’s economic recovery is taking longer than expected. OPPO* has recently been facing challenges in overseas markets too. It has had to exit the German market after losing a patent lawsuit with Nokia. At the same time, the three brands’ revenues and profitability have struggled too. While OPPO* and vivo saw both annual shipment and ASP declines, leading to double-digit revenue declines, Xiaomi’s slight annual ASP growth could also not prevent a double-digit revenue decline in Q1 2023.

The smartphone market as a whole, too, is likely to struggle for the next couple of quarters. Commenting on the near-term outlook,Research Director Tarun Pathaksaid, “The persistent issues affecting the smartphone market are unlikely to abate anytime soon. Moreover, the recent decision by OPEC countries to cut oil production may lead to higher inflation rates, causing a reduction in consumers’ spending power. As a result, even if the decline in smartphone shipments stabilises, a significant recovery is unlikely before the year-end holiday quarter.”

*OPPO includes OnePlus

You can also visit ourData Section(updated quarterly) to view the smartphone market share forWorld,US,ChinaandIndia.

Background

Global Smartphone Shipments Share – Last Eight Years of Winners & Losers

Published date: March 1, 2023

Source :Counterpoint Research Market Monitor

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Brand	2015	2016	2017	2018	2019	2020	2021	2022
Samsung	22%	21%	20%	19%	20%	19%	20%	21%
Apple	16%	14%	14%	14%	13%	15%	17%	18%
Xiaomi	5%	4%	6%	8%	8%	11%	14%	12%
OPPO	3%	6%	8%	8%	8%	8%	10%	9%
vivo	3%	5%	6%	7%	8%	8%	9%	8%
Huawei	7%	9%	10%	14%	11%	10%	2%	2%

The global smartphone market declined 19% YoY to reach 302.6 million units in Q4 2022.
India’s smartphone shipments dropped 30% YoY and 31% QoQ. The decline in entry level and budget segments which faced supply constraints in beginning of year and then witnessed lower demand throughout the year.
China smartphone market dropped 16% YoY but grew 2% QoQ in Q4 2022. Apple market share in China increased to 22% to become China’s biggest OEM.
LATAM’s smartphone shipments dropped 14% YoY but increased 6% QoQ. In 2022, Samsung and Motorola emerged as the leading smartphone brands in LATAM, capturing 39% and 24% market share respectively – a testament to their strong foothold in the region’s mobile industry.
Apple registered its highest shipment in North America to reach 22.3 million followed by China with 15.7 million units.

2022 Global Smartphone Shipments Lowest Since 2013; Apple Regained No. 1 Rank with Highest-Ever Operating Profit Share of 85%

The global smartphone market declined by 18% YoY to reach 304 million units in Q4 2022.
Apple replaced Samsung as the top smartphone player in Q4 2022, driven by the recent launch of the iPhone 14 series.
The 2022 global shipments declined by 12% to 1.2 billion units, the lowest since 2013.
Global smartphone revenue declined by 9% to $409 billion, the lowest since 2017.
Apple achieved its highest-ever global smartphone shipment, revenue and operating profit share in 2022.

London, New Delhi, Hong Kong, Seoul, Beijing, Denver, Buenos Aires – February 3, 2023

The global smartphone market remained under pressure in Q4 2022 with shipments declining by 18% YoY to the lowest level for a holiday quarter since 2013, even as they grew by 1% QoQ to 303.9 million units, according to the latest research fromCounterpoint’sMarket Monitorservice. Shipments for the full year 2022 also declined to 1.2 billion units, the lowest since 2013.

Commenting on overall market dynamics,Senior Analyst Harmeet Singh Waliasaid, “The war in Ukraine, inflationary pressures, economic uncertainty and macroeconomic headwinds kept the consumer sentiment weak in 2022 while smartphone users reduced the frequency of their purchases. The smartphone market remained under pressure in the fourth quarter of 2022 as the cost-of-living crisis, shortage in the labor market and a decline in consumers’ purchasing power resulted in double-digit declines in the shipments of each of the top five smartphone players.”

Consequently, global smartphone revenue and operating profit also saw a decline, although to a lesser degree than in shipments. An increased mix of premium phone offerings by major OEMs drove up the overallaverage selling price(ASP) by 5% YoY in 2022. The 9% decline in revenue, while lower than in shipments, resulted in annual smartphone revenues amounting to $409 billion, the lowest since 2017. A larger decline was prevented by a 1% growth in Apple, the only top five smartphone OEM to do so.

Commenting on Apple’s performance,Research Director Jeff Fieldhacksaid, “having proficiently managed its production problems, Apple was able to weather a year already marred by economic and geopolitical turmoil better than other major smartphone players. Its iPhone Pro series continued performing well and its share of iPhone shipments could have been even higher if not for the production issues caused by the COVID-19 breakout at the Zhengzhou factory, which produces the vast majority of Pro series volumes. As a result, some Pro series volumes got pushed to January.”

Consequently, its shipment, revenue and operating profit declined YoY in Q4 2022. However, it outperformed a struggling smartphone market in terms of shipment, revenue and operating profit growth, in turn achieving its highest-ever shares of 18%, 48% and 85% in these metrics respectively, in 2022.

Apple also benefited from the premium segment, its primary constituency, being less severely affected by the economic and geopolitical uncertainties that marred the year. Moreover, mature smartphone users are now choosing premium devices that last longer.

Elaborating on the ‘premiumization’ trend,Research Director Tarun Pathak said,“premiumization can also be seen within the Android ecosystem and is being led by Samsung with itsfoldable smartphones. As a result, Samsung was the only top five OEM besides Apple to see a 1% growth in revenue, even though its shipments declined by 5% in 2022 and operating profit declined by 1%. The performance of its flagship smartphones was stronger than market projections. Nevertheless, with a smaller profit decline than the overall smartphone market, its operating profit share increased slightly to 12% in 2022.”

Chinese smartphone players sufferedfrom domestic lockdowns for much of the year in addition to facing global economic and geopolitical difficulties. As a result, the shipments of Xiaomi, OPPO* and vivo fell by more than 20% each. Despite offering premium phones at aggressive margins, Chinese brands are yet to make headway in the premium market and have not been able to capitalize completely on Huawei’s decline. Unsurprisingly, then, their revenue as well as operating profit saw double-digit declines.

We expect the market to remain under pressure until the end of the first half of 2023 and to start recovering thereafter.

*OPPO includes OnePlus from Q3 2021

You can also visit ourData Section(updated quarterly) to view the smartphone market share forWorld,US,ChinaandIndia.

Global Smartphone Shipments to Contract 3% YoY in 2022 on Economic Headwinds

Smartphone shipment forecast for 2022 lowered to 1.36 billion units.
Q22022results will be weaker than expected, but the outlook for a rebound in H2 still stands.

Seoul, New Delhi, Hong Kong, London, Beijing, San Diego, Denver, Buenos Aires – June 2, 2022

Total smartphone units shipped globally in 2022 are expected to fall 3% YoY to 1.36 billion units, according to Counterpoint Research’s latestGlobal Smartphone Quarterly Shipment Forecast. The overall supply situation is expected to gradually improve in 2022 compared to the previous year, although shortages of several parts have not been resolved yet. On the macroeconomic front, expectations for recovery are now falling sharply and more concerns are spreading centered on China’s prolonged recession and the Ukraine crisis. Therefore, we expect this year’s smartphone market to contract.

China’s zero-tolerance approach towards the latest COVID-19 resurgence, with lockdowns of cities and even entire regions, has been slowing down its economy, besides causing a chain reaction across the global economy due to the country’s closed factories and rising logistics costs.
Consumer sentiment has contracted significantly recently due to the spread of global economic uncertainty and surging inflation due to the prolonged Ukraine-Russia war.
Due to the US dollar strength amid rising US interest rates, emerging economies will also face capital flight and inflation.

Global Smartphone Shipments, 2019-2022F (million units)

Peter Richardson,Vice Presidentat Counterpoint Research, said, “For the long term, we continue to expect a steady migration from feature phones to smartphones, and 3G/4G to 5G smartphones. As efforts to spread low- and mid-priced 5G devices continue, the global market for 5G devices is expected to show healthy growth and act as a significant driver of the overall smartphone market. Operators are actively promoting 5G, and the incentives are sufficient in many markets to cause consumers to switch to the new technology. However, the recent global inflation trends are hitting the consumer demand and smartphone BoM costs, acting as a risk for the 2022 smartphone market.”

Senior AnalystLiz Leeadded, “However, the outlook for a smartphone market recovery in the second half still stands. At the end of May, the Chinese government convened a meeting for large-scale economic stability countermeasures. The government is expected to implement more aggressive policies to stimulate the economy in the second half. Besides, we believe that new foldable smartphone launches, led by Samsung, will be able to stimulate demand in the premium segment.”

Feel free to contact us atpress@www.arena-ruc.comfor questions regarding our latest research and insights, and for press enquiries.

Background:

Analyst Contacts:

Liz Lee

Counterpoint Research
press(at)www.arena-ruc.com

Combined Global Market Share of Huawei, OPPO, Vivo, Xiaomi and Realme Reaches Highest-Ever Level in Q2 2019

Overall smartphone shipment declined 1% in Q2 2019, making it the seventh consecutive quarter of declining shipments.

Huawei’s shipment ban hurt it in overseas markets, but domestic market growth offset some of the pain.

Realme entered the top 10 brands for the first time.

New Delhi, Mumbai, Hong Kong, Seoul, San Diego, London, Buenos Aires – July 31^st, 2019

The combined global smartphone market share of Chinese majors Huawei, OPPO, Vivo, Xiaomi, and Realme (HOVXR) reached 42% in Q2 2019, the highest it has ever been. This was even as global smartphone shipments fell 1.2% year-on-year (YoY) to 360 million units during Q2 2019, making it the seventh consecutive quarter of decline.

Commenting on the record market share for HOVXR,Varun Mishra, Research Analyst对比研究指出,“重营销、faster portfolio refresh, high spec devices at aggressive prices, and multi-channel presence are some of the key reasons why Chinese brands fared better than the local and global OEMs. These brands have been aggressively expanding outside China and achieving growth offsetting the saturation in their home market. Their strategies and product portfolios are more aligned to the local needs and preferences, which is one of their key strengths.”

Exhibit: Smartphone Shipment Market Share 2019 Q2

Source: Counterpoint Research:Quarterly Market Monitor Q2 2019

智能手机市场下滑主要是因为China, which has continued to decline for two years now. China alone accounts for over one-fourth of the global smartphone shipments and declined 9% YoY during the quarter. The heightened US-China trade war during the quarter has further escalated the uncertainties of the smartphone market.Indiaremains a key growth market as the shipments set a second-quarter record,

Commenting on the trade warTarun Pathak, Associate Directorat Counterpoint Research, said “The US-China trade war escalated with Huawei added in the entity list in May. Despite the ban, Huawei was able to register a 4.6% growth during the quarter, capturing a 16% market share. Theeffect of the ban没有转化为th期间发货量下降is quarter, which will not be the case in the future. In the coming quarters, Huawei is likely to be aggressive in its home market and register some growth there, but it will not be enough to offset for the decline in its overseas shipments. This will further lead to the decline of the overall smartphone market in 2019. However, the gap created in the market by Huawei gives a window of opportunity to other OEMs, especially Samsung, to leverage.”

A portion of the decline in 2019 is likely to be compensated by the adoption of 5G.

Commenting on 5G,Varun Mishra, added“We expect that 5G will have a faster rollout than 4G LTE. Unlike 4G, which was split between FDD-LTE and TD-LTE, 5G has a universal standard, which will make the ramp-up faster. We expect sales of 5G devices to beover 20 millionin 2019. Network expansion of carriers, subsidies, and more OEMs committing to early 5G device launches than during the early 4G era Since these devices are expected to be limited to the premium segment in 2019, the adoption will also drive the market average selling price (ASP). Consumers are alsoexpecting to pay higher for the 5G smartphonethan what they paid for the 4G device.”

Even though shipments continued to decline, the market ASP is likely to increase, which will drive revenue for the industry. Adoption of 5G in mature economies and the shift from entry-level phones to mid-segment phones in emerging economies will drive up ASPs.

关键外卖:

Samsunggrew 7.1%YoY, capturing over one-fifth of the global smartphone market share. The OEM has completelyoverhauled its product portfolioin 2019 with its A and M series targeting the sub $300 price segment aggressively. The flagship S series, in which Samsung launched three devices instead of the usual two, covering wider price points also continue to do well. Samsung was also one of the first OEMs to launch a 5G device – S10 5G, which remains popular in the5G adopting
Huaweigrew 4.6% YoY, but the US trade ban will its growth momentum, especially in the overseas market. The effect in Q2 2019 was not severe as the order came late into the quarter. Thereal effect of trade sanction will be in Q3 2019. Shipments inoverseas markets are estimated to register a steep decline.
Apple iPhone shipments fell 11%,and iPhone revenues fell 12% year-on-year. Despite this decline, iPhone sales trends are improving. Apple’s buyback programs and other marketing are dampening growing holding periods. However, thelack of 5Gover upcoming quarters may again increase holding periods.
Realme entered the top 10 OEMs globally for the first time. It took Realme only a year to achieve this feat.This is one of the fastest ramp-ups. Strong performance in India and expansion overseas drove its growth. This was also the third consecutive quarter that Realme sold withintop 5 brands in India.
This was thethird consecutive quarter of a decline inApple iPhone shipments. To ramp up sales, Apple implemented price cuts for the iPhone XR in India and China markets. Amid the slowdown in China and likely launch of 5G capable iPhone in 2020, Apple will have to concentrate its efforts on emerging markets.
The market further consolidated with thetop 10 brands’market share increasing to 79% from 76% a year ago.
BBK Group is now the second-largest smartphone manufacturer globally.

Analyst Contacts:

Tarun Pathak
Varun Mishra
Shobhit Srivastava

Follow Counterpoint Research
press(at)www.arena-ruc.com

You can alsovisit our Data Section(updated quarterly) to view smartphone market shareGloballyand from美国,ChinaandIndia

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