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MediaTek Weather’s Macroeconomic Headwinds With 9% YoY Revenue Growth

MediaTek‘s revenues fell 8.7% sequentially but increased 8.5% YoY to NT$142.1 billion. On a USD basis, revenues were comparatively flat due to FX weakness. Global宏观不利因素, inventory correction, slowChina market and weak consumer demand led to the revenue decline and weak outlook. Declining 8% QoQ, the智能手机segment contributed to 55% (NT$ 78.2 in Q3 2022) of MediaTek’s total revenue in Q3 2022. Smartphone segment demand was affected by customers’ inventory adjustments, especially in the 5G mid-range SoCs. Demand forLTE SoCswas strong in QoQ terms.

The company has expanded its portfolio for theflagshipand mid-range segments by launchingDimensity 9000+ and Dimensity 1050, respectively. The newly launched premium SoC has been adopted by top-end gaming smartphones. Also, MediaTek will launch a next-generation flagship SoC in Q4 2022. This will add to its premium segment revenue.
The Smart Edge segment, which contributed 38% to the company’s revenue in the third quarter, declined 9% QoQ as telecommunication operators cut back on orders, negatively impacting the company’sWi-Fiand wired businesses. Also, the consumer market weakness affected the tablet, Chromebook and monitor businesses.
The power IC segment, which accounted for 7% of MediaTek’s revenue in Q3 2022, declined 17% QoQ due to weak demand for power ICs in consumer devices such as smartphones and PCs. But demand for power ICs for automotive and industrial applications remained robust in Q3 2022.
MediaTek guided Q4 2022 revenues in the range of NT$108 billion to NT$119.4 billion ($3.4 billion to $3.8 billion), a decline of 16%-24% QoQ and a decline of 7%-16% YoY. The gross margin is expected to be around 48.5% and the operating expense ratio is expected to be 31%. LTE SoCs will decline more severely than 5G SOCs in Q4 2022. Wi-Fi, broadband and routers will also be impacted as some of the Wi-Fi operators will slow down their fourth-quarter buy-in. The company also projected a sequential increase in revenues in Q1 2023.
The inventory level came down in Q3 2022 compared to the previous quarter. For both 4G and5G, SoC inventory will come down in Q4 2022. Inventory corrections will be normalized in H1 2023.
According to Counterpoint Research’sSmartphone AP/SoC Shipment Tracker, MediaTek dominated the smartphone AP/SoC market in Q3 2022 with a share of 36.5%, followed byQualcomm. MediaTek shipments have declined due to order cuts from major Chinese OEMs. MediaTek’s relatively greater dependence on the mid-end and low-end smartphone segments, which are likely to be more affected by the current macroeconomic situation as well as excess channel inventory, will lead to a weaker fourth quarter.

Overall, weak market outlook for Q4 2022 from MediaTek echoes increasingly cautious views from the foundry and IC packaging makers, which are seeing a slowdown in smartphone IC orders in early 2023. We expect 2023 to be challenging with inventory correction going on till H1 2023 and coming down to a normal level (80-90 days) by the end of 2023. The demand outlook for 2023 also looks challenging after inventory corrections due to macroeconomic uncertainty and weak China market. From the technology migration point of view, 5G SoCs are going to be a growth opportunity for the company. MediaTek will focus on maintaining gross margin, following price discipline at a time of uncertainty in the globalsemiconductor industry.

Qualcomm Captures 44% of the Smartphone AP/SoC and Baseband Revenues in Q1 2022

New Delhi, London, Hong Kong, Beijing, San Diego, Denver, Seoul, Buenos Aires – June 7, 2022

Driven by the global premium and mid-tier 5G portfolio, global smartphone AP (Application Processor)/SoC (System on Chip) chipset and baseband revenues grew 23% YoY in Q1 2022, according to the latest research fromCounterpoint’s Foundry and AP/SoC service. In Q1 2022, 5G AP/SoC and baseband revenues grew 36% compared to the same period a year ago.

Source:Counterpoint’s Foundry and AP/SoC service

Note: Total revenues include revenues generated from the AP/SoC and discrete baseband

Research Director Dale Gai said, “Qualcomm leads the smartphone AP/SoC and baseband revenues with 44% share. The revenue reached$6.3 billion for Qualcomm, growing 56% YoY in Q1 2022, driven by thehigher premium mixwhich has led to growth in the ASPs. Qualcomm is also providing the discrete baseband shipments to Apple and Qualcomm’s own AP’s, which contribute to around a quarter of Qualcomm’s smartphone AP/SoC and baseband revenues.”

Commenting on the growth in MediaTek’s performance, Senior Analyst Parv Sharma said, “MediaTek’s revenues grew 29% YoY in Q1 2022,达到19%的份额在全球AP / SoC和去nd revenues. MediaTek has dominated the volume shipments for 5G mid-tier smartphones and 4G smartphones. The penetration of 5G is growing continuously and this is helping drive higher revenues for MediaTek. It has also entered the premium 5G segment for the first time with its Dimensity 9000, and this chip, together with the Dimensity 8000, has added impetus to its overall revenues.”

Summary:

Qualcomm: Qualcomm leads the smartphone AP/SoC and baseband revenues with a 44% share. Qualcomm’s revenue grew by 56% YoY in Q1 2022 driven by the higher premium mix which has led to growth in the ASPs. Around a quarter of Qualcomm’s smartphone AP/SoC and baseband revenues are derived from its sales of discrete basebands.

MediaTek: MediaTek captured a 19% share of the total global smartphone AP/SoC and baseband revenues. The AP/SoC and baseband revenues for MediaTek grew 29% YoY in Q1 2022. Driven by the higher 5G ASP and entry into the premium tier with its Dimensity 9000 series.

Apple: Withconsistent healthy demandfor the premium iPhone 13 series, Apple captured the second position with a 26% share. Apple uses Qualcomm’s discrete basebands for 5G connectivity in the iPhone 12 and iPhone 13 series.

Samsung Exynos: Samsung captured fourth position with a 7% share in the AP/SoC and baseband revenues in Q1 2022. Samsung revenue also grew sequentially. Samsung’s shipment volume increased in Q1 2022 due to the launch of Exynos 1280. Samsung launched theGalaxy A33 and A53 with its Exynos 1280 SoCs. However, despite some positive indicators, Samsung Exynos’ share declined in Q1 2022 due to losing share to Qualcomm in the flagship Galaxy S22 series smartphones and due to thelow yields of the 4nmpremium Exynos chipsets.

UNISOC: UNISOC captured 3% of the overall AP/SoC and baseband revenues. A larger part of the revenues is driven by its 4G AP/SoCs, which have grown significantly over the past years. The share ofUNISOC AP/SoC shipmentsreached 11% in Q1 2022. It has gained share as other chipset providers have focused less on the 4G LTE AP/SoCs creating a shortage of supply that UNISOC took advantage of to win new customers and market share. UNISOC was able to expand its customer base with design wins with realme, HONOR, Motorola, Samsung, ZTE and TECNO all launching phones with UNISOC’s Tiger series of chipsets.

HiSilicon: Affected by the UStrade ban, Huawei was unable to manufacture the HiSilicon Kirin chipsets. The accumulated inventory of Kirin SoCs is on the verge of being exhausted. The overall revenues have declined from 8% in Q1 2021 to 1% in Q1 2022.

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Parv沙姆a

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Entry Into Flagship Segment, 5G AP/SOCs Lead to Strong Growth for MediaTek in Q1 2022

MediaTek recorded an impressive set of numbers for Q1 2022 with revenues growing 32% YoY and 10.2% QoQ to reach $4.8 billion. The company’s mobile phone segment achieved a revenue of $2.7 billion, growing 29% YoY. According toCounterpoint Research’sSmartphone,AP/SOC Shipment Tracker,the addition of the Dimensity 9000 to the premium segment has added meaningfully to the overall revenues that have also been driven by 5G AP/SOCs in the mid-tier segment. LTE AP/SOCs are still attracting high demand and will be in tight supply throughout 2022. Based on our data, LTE AP/SOCs contributed to one-third of the total AP shipments in Q1 2022.

MediaTek Revenue by segment

The smart edge segment contributed 39% toMediaTek’s Q1 2022 revenues. This segment is mainly driven by the Wi-Fi 6/6E migration and higher-end solutions for smart TVs and tablets. Technology migration trends in smart edge platforms have led to ahigher blended ASPin this segment.
The power IC segment accounted for 8% of the total revenues, growing 52% YoY and 21% QoQ. A large part of the PMIC segment’s revenue is coming from displays and smartphones. Automotive and industrial applications contribute to 10% of the PMIC revenue and will drive growth for this segment in 2022.
MediaTekguided revenues to be in the range of $5-$5.3 billion in Q2 2022, up 3~10% QoQ and 17~25% YoY. The mobile phone segment will show the strongest growth due to the shifting of demand fromLTEto5GAP/SOCs. As theChina market is slowing, the revenue growth will come from other regions like India and Europe. Also, theDimensity 9000 and 8000 series will continue to add to the revenues in Q2 2022. However, due to theslowdown in Chinaand deteriorating macroeconomic conditions, we have reduced our H2 2022 forecast for theDimensity 9000.
Revenues fromWi-Fi 6, 5G SIM modem, 5G tablet, 10G-PON and 4K smart TV are also expected to grow strongly in H2 2022. Also, MediaTek’s mmWaveSOC is on schedule to ship in the second half of 2022. It will pave the way for MediaTek’s further expansion in the global market.
According toCounterpoint Research’s Smartphone AP/SOC Shipment Tracker, MediaTek will continue to lead the smartphone AP SOC market with a volume share of 41% in Q2 2022, followed byQualcommwith 27%. The company’s strategy of 5G,Wi-Fi 6, focused product migration, geographic expansion with global customers, and penetration into high-end and flagship segments will allow MediaTek to retain and even improve its strong market position.
Chinaslowdown,COVID-19 lockdownsand macroeconomic conditions will affect theglobal smartphone market. MediaTek guides flat growth for the smartphone market in 2022 and5Gpenetration (660-680 million units) reaching 50%. Further, 5G penetration is expected to reach 70% in the next two years.
SmartphoneOEMslikeOPPO,vivoandXiaomicurrently have inventories with distributors and also forcomponents like AP/SOCs, PMICs and DDICs. This has led to a drop in AP/SOC orders for MediaTek for H2 2022. But MediaTek is keeping a high inventory reserve this quarter to sustain its OEM andODMpartners during the worseningCOVID-19situation. MediaTek normally runs with around 90 days of inventory. But it has now raised this to around 100 days to manage potentialsupply constraints.
MediaTek sought to reassure investors that it would not follow a low pricing strategy to counter slowing demand. Instead, it will invest in future growth. Its pricing strategy will also leverage its high capacity and will manage profitability by maintaining similar pricing as the previous quarter. We expect overall 5G AP/SOC ASPs to be flat compared to last year. If the competition reduces the prices, it will be challenging for MediaTek to maintain growth in H2 2022. Due to the strong demand for LTE AP/SOCs, the ASPs will not decline this year. Overall,5GAP/SOCs will have a premium pricing over LTE. The company is now focusing on developing5G AP/SOCs for low-endphones priced less than $150. We believe this will happen two years down the line. However, based on our estimates, LTE is going to dominate the less than $100 smartphones, driven by regions like LATAM, Africa and APAC.
Presently, MediaTek is not a big player in thePCbusiness, having only a few Chromebook-type devices in the market. The company played down its expectations for substantial growth in the PC sector while confirming that it was interested in the potential of the Arm-based PC market.
Smartphones still contribute 53% of the revenues for MediaTek. For longer-term growth, MediaTek has to reduce dependence on smartphones and expand into areas like the smart edge,automotive, connected PCs andAR/VR.

Qualcomm Gains Share in Smartphone AP/SoC Shipments in Q4 2021; MediaTek Continues to Lead

Qualcomm’s share reached 30% driven by the premium tier.
UNISOC had a strong Q4 with its share reaching 11%.
Qualcomm led the 5G baseband market with a 76% share.

Seoul, Taipei, Beijing, New Delhi, London, Boston, Toronto, Hong Kong – February 24, 2022

The global smartphone AP (Application Processor)/SoC (System on Chip) chipset shipments grew 5% YoY in Q4 2021, according to the latest research fromCounterpoint’s Foundry and AP/SoC service. 5G smartphone SoC shipments were almost half of the total SoC shipments.

Research Director Dale Gaisaid, “MediaTek led the smartphone SoC marketwith a share of 33%. Its smartphone SoC volumes declined this quarter due to the high shipments in the first half and inventory corrections from Chinese smartphone OEMs. Many customers had built chipset inventories to manage uncertainties in the supply situation.”

On the growth outlook, Gai added, “We expect revenues to grow in Q1 2022 driven by the flagship chipset (Dimensity 9000) for smartphones. Higher 5G penetration will offset the lower seasonal demand. The increase in chipset prices after TSMC’s wafer price hike is reflected from Q4 2021 onwards. 5G migration in regions like APAC, MEA and LATAM and continued LTE demand will help MediaTek have a strong 2022.”

Global Smartphone AP/SoC Shipment Market Share (%), Q4 2020 vs Q4 2021

Source: Counterpoint Research Quarterly AP/SoC/Baseband Shipments Tracker, February 2022

Commenting on Qualcomm’s performance,Senior Analyst Parv Sharmasaid, “Qualcomm recorded a very strong quarter, growing 18% QoQ and 33% YoY despite component shortages and foundry capacity not being able to keep up with demand. Qualcomm was able to prioritize high-end Snapdragon sales, which come with higher profitability and less impact from shortages than mid-end and low-end mobile handsets. The company was also able to increase supplies from its major foundry partners bydual-sourcingkey products. It captured a 76% share in the 5G baseband shipments driven by Apple’s iPhone 13 and 12 series and premium Android portfolio.”

评论的增长机会,Sharma添加ed, “Qualcomm’sSnapdragon 8 Gen 1 flagshipmobile platform will start shipping from Q1 2022. The performance in Q1 2022 will be driven by design wins in theSamsung Galaxy S22series and launches in the Chinese New Year. Overall, the next inflexion in growth will be in H2 2022 with the launch of 5G handsets by major OEMs. The share of revenues from Android is also growing as more OEMs are adopting Qualcomm’s modem-to-antenna RFFE solution across tiers.”

Global 5G Smartphone Baseband Shipment Market Share (%), Q4 2020 vs Q4 2021

Source: Counterpoint Research Quarterly AP/SoC/Baseband Shipments Tracker, February 2022

Summary:

MediaTekled the smartphone SoC market in Q4 2021 with a 33% share. Shipments declined due to inventory correction as many customers had built inventories due to supply chain constraints.

Qualcommgrew 18% sequentially due to the premium segment and dual-sourcing from foundries. It dominated the 5G baseband modem shipments with a 76% share, driven by basebands for Apple and premium Android.

Applemaintained its third position in the smartphone SoC market in Q4 2021 with a 21% share. The iPhone 13 launch and festive season drove the shipments.

UNISOCcontinued with shipment growth this year and reached an 11% share in Q4 2021. On an annual basis, itsSoC shipments more than doubled in 2021. It has expanded its customer base, securing design wins with HONOR, realme, Motorola, ZTE, Transsion and Samsung.

Samsung Exynosslipped to the fifth position with a 4% share as Samsung is in the middle of rejigging its smartphone portfolio strategy of in-sourcing as well as outsourcing to ChineseODMs. As a result, the share of MediaTek and Qualcomm has been growing across Samsung’s smartphone portfolio, from the mid-range 4G and 5G models manufactured by ODMs to the flagship ones.

HiSiliconwas unable to manufacture Kirin chipsets due to the US trade ban against Huawei. The accumulated inventory of Kirin SoCs is on the verge of being exhausted. As a result, Huawei is launching itslatest serieswith Qualcomm SoCs but is limited to 4G capabilities.

For our comprehensive research on foundries to chipsets to devices, feel free to get in touch with us at the contacts given below.

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市场研究是一个世界人口对位技术l research firm specializing in products in the TMT (technology, media and telecom) industry. It services major technology and financial firms with a mix of monthly reports, customized projects and detailed analyses of the mobile and technology markets. Its key analysts are seasoned experts in the high-tech industry.

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MediaTek Records Strong Revenues. Mid-teens Growth Expected Through 2025

2021 saw record revenues of $17.6B, growing 53% annually (2020 $11.5B). and operating margin both increased for the fourth consecutive year, driven by investment in 5G, Wi-Fi 6 and low-power technology.
4Q 2021 revenues were down sequentially 2% and up 33.5% YoY. The sequential decline was due to a reduction in smartphones revenues (down 9% QoQ).

Exhibit 1: MediaTek Revenue, Sales to Gross Profit, R&D & Operating income

Its smartphone chipset volumes declined this quarter due to the high shipments in the first half and inventory corrections from Chinese smartphone OEMs. Because of the supply chain constraints, many customers built chipset inventory to manage uncertainties in the supply situation. The chipset inventory increased again this quarter due to the market situation.
Guidance for 1Q 2022, Revenue $4.7-$5.1B up 2-10% sequentially driven by flagship chipset (Dimensity 9000) for smartphones, and higher 5G penetration which will offset the lower seasonal demand. Also, the increase in the chipset pricing afterTSMC’s hike in wafer priceis reflected from Q4 2021 onwards.
Growth Outlook:In 2022 revenue growth to exceed 20% with a gross margin target of 48% to 50%, owing to a better product mix and strong technology migration. 2022 is going to be another strong year as the foundry supply becomes more manageable. Mediatek already has the needed capacity with TSMC.
It expects TAM to grow from $2.8B in 2021 to $5.1B in 2024. CAGR of mid-teen % for the next three years, with all revenue groups growing.
Mobile to grow from $1B in 2021 to $1.8bn in 2024
Smart Edge to grow from $1.4B in 2021 to $2.8B in 2024
Power IC to grow from $0.3B in 2021 to $0.5B in 2024
According toCounterpoint’s Smartphone Chipset Shipment forecast, we expect MediaTek to lead the smartphone chipset market with a 39% volume share in 1Q 2022 followed by Qualcomm with 29%.
Mediatek has guided long term revenue growth, but most revenues will still be driven by smartphones. It will need to look for new growth areas either by investment or merger to remain competitive withQualcomm, which is diversifying into Automotive, IoT, RF etc.
MediaTek has secured major Dimensity 9000 design wins across multiple Chinese OEMs e.g., Oppo, Vivo, Xiaomi etc. The first model is scheduled to launch in March. We expect MediaTek’s flagship (3/4/5nm nodes) chipset to gain a 9%-10% market share in 2022.
MediaTek’s 2022 blended chipset ASPs will be flat to slightly up due to the increasing mix of the 5G, flagship products. Further 4G chipset absolute revenues will be flat to a slight decline as the 5G chipset mix increases. According toCounterpoint’s Market Outlook service, 5G smartphone penetration is forecast to reach 54% of the total smartphone market, accounting for 800mn units.
MediaTek has design wins in the Automotive segment, with infotainment applications. It also has the potential of adding 5G modems andIoT modules with companies such as Quectel, Fibocom, etc. Right now, these are not big revenue drivers, but a couple of years down the line will drive significant volumes.
Notebooks/PC: With 5G modems,Wi-Fi 6/6E,可anio chipsets (for Chromebooks) it gained in the notebook segment in partnership with Intel and AMD.
Another area for growth isConsumer Premises Equipment (CPE)for global operators using both 5G modem and Wi-Fi chipset in the applications likeFixed Wireless Access (FWA)etc.
Extended Reality (XR) is a focus segment for MediaTek which will drive revenue. According toCounterpoint’s Extended Reality headset forecast, shipments are projected to grow about 10x from 11Mn units in 2021 to 105Mn in 2025.
MediaTek is investing in the core technology to drive growth, like 5G modem with low latency, mmWave support, next-gen. Wi-Fi, 6G,securityIP etc.

MediaTek Leads Smartphone SoC Shipments in Q3 2021; UNISOC Reaches Double-digit Share

Qualcomm grew 9% QoQ due to dual sourcing from foundries.
UNISOC market share entered double digits at 10%.
Qualcomm led the 5G baseband market with a 62% share.

Seoul, Taipei, Beijing, New Delhi, London, Boston, Toronto, Hong Kong – December 15, 2021

Global smartphone AP (Application Processor)/SoC (System on Chip) shipmentsgrew 6% YoY in Q3 2021, according to the latest research from Counterpoint’s Foundry and AP/SoC Service. 5G smartphone SoC shipments grew almost two times compared to the same period last year.

Research Director Dale Gaisaid, “MediaTek led the smartphone SoC market with a 40% share, driven by a competitive 5G SoC and high demand for the 4G SoC. MediaTek’srevenues grewsequentially as the mix of the mid-end and high-end SoC portfolios grew. The blended ASP will continue to increase due to the launch of flagship products in Q1 2022 and an increase in chipset prices starting Q4 2021. 4G chipsets continued to be in strong demand due to the ongoing shortages, which have affected 4G SoCs more.”

Global Smartphone AP/SoC Shipments Market Share, Q3 2020 vs Q3 2021

Source:Counterpoint Research Quarterly AP/SoC/Baseband Shipments Tracker, Dec 2021

Commenting on Qualcomm’s performance,Research Analyst Parv Sharmasaid, “Qualcomm’s smartphone SoC shipments grew both QoQ and YoY in Q3 2021. The key to Qualcomm’s revenue growth was its ability todual-source manufacturingof key components, namely theSnapdragon 800series SoCs and its premium 5G modem. Qualcomm led the 5G baseband market with a 62% share. It gained from the 5G baseband modem chipset win in the Apple iPhone 13 series and demand for its complete 5G SoC chipsets, from the flagship 8 series to affordable 4 series. MediaTek also saw strong momentum from the Dimensity 700 and 800 series in the low-mid segment.”

Global 5G Smartphone Baseband Shipments Market Share, Q3 2020 vs Q3 2021

Source:Counterpoint Research Quarterly AP/SoC/Baseband Shipments Tracker, Dec 2021

Market Summary:

MediaTekdominated the smartphone SoC market in Q3 2021 with a 40% share. It gained share in the low-mid segment 5G portfolio. LTE SoCs further helped it to strengthen its market position.

Qualcommgrew 9% sequentially due to dual sourcing from foundries. It dominated the5G basebandmodem shipments with a 62% share. The refreshed portfolio in the Snapdragon 7, 6 and 4 series will further help it gain share in Q4 2021.

Applemaintained its third position in the smartphone SoC market in Q3 2021 with a 15% share. With the launch of the iPhone 13 and festive season, its share will grow further in Q4 2021. However, component shortages will affect its festive season sales.

UNISOCshipment growthcontinued for the third consecutive quarter in Q3 2021. Its market share entered double digits during the quarter at 10%. The company has succeeded in expanding its customer base, securing a series of design wins with major OEMs like HONOR, realme, Motorola, ZTE and Transsion. Further, it also had a design win in Samsung’s Galaxy A series.

Samsung Exynosslipped to the fifth position with a 5% share as it is in the middle of rejigging its smartphone portfolio strategy of in-sourcing as well as outsourcing to Chinese ODMs. Therefore, the share of MediaTek and Qualcomm has been growing across Samsung’s smartphone portfolio, from the mid-range 4G and 5G models manufactured by ODMs to the flagship ones.

HiSiliconremained affected by theUS trade ban. Huawei was unable to manufacture the HiSilicon Kirin chipsets. The accumulated inventory of Kirin SoCs is on the verge of being exhausted. As a result, Huawei is launching its latest series with Qualcomm SoCs but limited to 4G capabilities.

为我们全面研究铸造芯片ets to devices, get in touch with us at the contacts given below.

Background:

Analyst Contacts:

Dale Gai

Parv沙姆a

Follow Counterpoint Research
press(at)www.arena-ruc.com

Foundry Strategy & Chipsets Supply Shaping Smartphone SoC Competitive Dynamics in 2021

Seoul, Taipei, Beijing, London, Boston, Toronto, New Delhi, Hong Kong – May 3, 2021

MediaTek to lead global smartphone SoC market with 37% share whereas Qualcomm will lead the global 5G smartphone SoC market with 30% share.
The leading-edge nodes (7nm, 6nm and 5n) will account for almost half of the smartphone shipment volume during 2021.
5G AP/SoC chipset volumes willmore than doubleannually in 2021.

The competitive dynamics in the smartphone AP/SoC market is changing fast for the fabless SoC vendors such as Qualcomm, MediaTek, Apple and others. The market outlook for these vendors is being shaped by not only the breadth and depth of the capabilities or tiering of the chipset portfolio but also by the choice, the share of the capacities across different edge-nodes at the foundries.Global smartphone AP (Application Processor)/SoC (System on Chip) chipset shipmentswill grow 3% YoY in 2021, factoring in the impact of supply constraint, rapid growth of 5G smartphones and related competitive dynamics according to the latest research from Counterpoint’s Foundry & Application Processor (AP/SoC) research.

在评论这项研究Research Director Dale Gaisaid, “When we break down our forecast with respect to the current demand-supply dynamics,MediaTek is likely to continue its Q4 2020 momentum into 2021and likely to capture 37% unit share of all the smartphone AP/SoC shipped for the full the year. This 20% potential annual uptick in demand is a function of competitive 5G portfolio powering sub-$150 5G smartphones manufactured at TSMC without any supply constraint and growing share in 4G segment. Further, MediaTek in the first half of 2021 will benefit from Qualcomm’s currentsupply constraintsaround RFICs (radio-frequency integrated circuits) from Samsung’s Austin fab, Power management ICs (PMIC), and relatively lower 5nm production yields.”

Exhibit 1: Global Smartphone AP/SoC Market Share (%) Outlook

Global smartphone chipset share

Source: Counterpoint Research – Foundry & SoC Outlook, Apr 2021

Mr Gai, added, “However, we believe Qualcomm to bounce back strongly in H2 2021, firstly by securing greater capacity at TSMC to boost its 5G-centric tiered Snapdragon portfolio. Secondly, taking key steps to improve the supply of PMICs and RFICs should alleviate the supply constraints in coming months. This will allow Qualcomm to maintain its leadership in 5G SoC market and overall market share of 31% still growing annually.”

Highlighting the importance of leading-edge nodes and securing capacities for the same, Mr Gai noted, “The leading-edge nodes, including 7nm, 6nm and 5nm, will account for almost half of the smartphone shipment volume in 2021. These leading nodes are mainly for 5G smartphone models, as advanced nodes (e.g., 11/12/14nm at TSMC and Samsung) will serve the mainstream 4G LTE chipsets in 2021.”

Exhibit 2: Global 5G Smartphone AP/SoC Market Share (%) Outlook

5G smartphone chipset forecast

Source: Counterpoint Research – Foundry & AP/SoC Outlook, Apr 2021

Commenting on the growth of 5G smartphone chipsets,Research Analyst Parv Sharmahighlighted, “We estimate Qualcomm to increase its 5G SoC market share to grow to 30% mark in 2021, with 5G solutions across the tiers, from Snapdragon 8-series down to 4-series. If you include 5G baseband shipments to Apple, the overall 5G chipset market share jumps to 59% level. In an ideal scenario, Qualcomm’s market share in 5G segment would have been even higher if it did not face the unfortunate supply constraints in the first half of 2021. As Qualcomm turns to place more wafer orders on TSMC’s 6nm/5nm from Q2 2021, following the below-expectation wafer output of theSnapdragon888 in the beginning of the year, we expect it to resume its 5G SoC shipment growth from H2 2021.”

Mr. Sharma further adds, “MediaTek leveraging TSMC and its affordable 5G portfolio is well-positioned to almost double its market share in 5G smartphone SoC/AP segment. Together, MediaTek and Qualcomm occupy nearly two-thirds of the 5G smartphone SoC market demand, but the gap between the two has narrowed. Having said that, the foundry capacity will continue to remain tight till early 2022, before the next wave ofCAPEXrealizes at the leading nodes.”

为我们全面研究铸造芯片ets to devices, feel free to contact us at the contacts below.

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Analyst Contacts:

Dale Gai

Parv沙姆a

Follow Counterpoint Research
press(at)www.arena-ruc.com

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Insights Tag:Smartphone chipset

Qualcomm Captures 44% of the Smartphone AP/SoC and Baseband Revenues in Q1 2022

Qualcomm Gains Share in Smartphone AP/SoC Shipments in Q4 2021; MediaTek Continues to Lead

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